FC Bayern is kicking off the new Champions League season with high ambitions. After being eliminated in the semifinals last season, the team is aiming for the championship this time around. A forecast by the Opta supercomputer now confirms that the Munich-based club is among the absolute top favorites.
The data model simulated the 2026–27 Champions League season a total of 10,000 times. The result is likely to please those in charge at Säbener Straße: In 19.9 percent of the simulations, FC Bayern ultimately won the trophy.
This puts Vincent Kompany’s team in second place in the rankings. Only Arsenal is given even better odds. The Gunners won the Champions League in 21.2 percent of the simulated season scenarios.
The gap between the two top favorites is thus surprisingly small. At the same time, Bayern and Arsenal are well ahead of the rest of the European competition.
Bayern leaves Man City, PSG, and Real in the dust
Manchester City follows in third place. The English side has a 12 percent chance of winning the title and, alongside Arsenal and Bayern, is the only other club with a double-digit probability.
Defending champion Paris Saint-Germain trails significantly behind at 7.7 percent. FC Barcelona stands at seven percent. Real Madrid and Liverpool are each given a title probability of just 5.1 percent.
For Bayern, the forecast is quite remarkable. The data model rates numerous European heavyweights as significantly weaker than the German record champions.
The fact that Arsenal is still just ahead of the Munich team also has to do with the overall assessment of the squad. Opta currently ranks Mikel Arteta’s team as the strongest in the world. During the league phase, the two biggest title favorites will even face off directly, with Bayern enjoying home-field advantage against the Gunners.
In the forecast for the league phase, the picture actually shifts in Munich’s favor.
Opta sees Bayern in first place in the league phase
Who is going to win the Champions League this season?
🤖💻 The Opta supercomputer has spoken, and Arsenal are its favorites for European glory. pic.twitter.com/TzROYRBmCN
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) September 4, 2026
In 19.8 percent of the 10,000 simulations, FC Bayern finishes the league phase at the top of the table. No other team reaches this figure.
The record champions also look to be in excellent shape for advancing to the knockout stage. In 93.5 percent of the simulations, Bayern makes it to the next round. Even Arsenal is close behind the Munich team at 93.1 percent.
Of course, such a calculation remains merely a statistical projection. Especially in the Champions League, injuries, fluctuations in form, or individual moments in knockout matches can have a decisive impact on the outcome of the competition.
Nevertheless, the numbers underscore the significance with which Bayern is entering the new Champions League season. Since their 2020 Champions League triumph, the Munich side has been waiting for its next title.
Under Kompany, the trophy is now set to finally return to Munich. At least according to the supercomputer’s calculations, the odds of that happening are exceptionally good: Only Arsenal is rated even stronger than FC Bayern ahead of the start of the Champions League.