The semi-final second leg between FC Bayern and Paris Saint-Germain is seen by many as a completely open duel. After the spectacular 4:5 in the first leg, many experts are talking about a classic 50:50 game. But a look at the latest data from the Opta supercomputer paints a slightly different picture
The simulations by the renowned statistics provider show a clear shift in the balance of power in favour of the Parisians. According to Opta, PSG will go into the second leg at the Allianz Arena as the favorites with a probability of 58%
FC Bayern, on the other hand, is at 42% – a figure that is significantly lower, but at the same time shows that anything remains possible for the German record champions
The development compared to the previous calculations is particularly remarkable. Before the first leg, the supercomputer gave Munich a clear advantage, with Bayern’s chances of reaching the final at 60% and PSG’s at just 40%
The 4:5 in Paris has fundamentally changed this assessment – and catapulted the French side into the role of favorites
PSG are also ahead in the title race
According to Opta, PSG are not only ahead in the direct duel, but also in the race for the Champions League title
PSG’s probability of winning the title is currently put at 30%, while Bayern’s is 24%. Arsenal FC lead the field with 34%, while Atlético Madrid bring up the rear of the remaining teams with 12%
These figures underline the fact that PSG are currently one of the top favorites not only against Bayern, but also in the overall picture
Everything is decided on the pitch
Despite the statistical disadvantages, the starting position for FC Bayern is anything but hopeless. A probability of 42 percent ultimately means that the game could tip at any time
Added to this is a factor that no supercomputer can fully grasp: the special atmosphere in the Allianz Arena. The stadium has repeatedly proven to be a decisive advantage, especially in knockout matches
Bayern boss Jan-Christian Dreesen had already emphasized before the clash that Paris would go into the semi-final as favourites – an assessment that is confirmed by the current figures
In the end, the predictions remain just that: calculations. The reality will be written on Wednesday evening – on the pitch, not in the algorithm
For FC Bayern, this means that despite falling behind and being at a statistical disadvantage, the chance of reaching the final is still alive. And this is precisely where Munich’s great strength lies on nights like these.