The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or promises to be exciting right up to the end. Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappé are among the leading contenders for the prestigious award. Shortly before the voting deadline, the landscape on the betting markets appears to have shifted significantly once again.
The voting period ended on Monday. The votes are now being tallied before the winner is announced on October 26 at the Palladium Theatre in London. It is not yet known who has actually accumulated the most points.
What is striking, however, is the trend among various bookmakers and prediction markets. While Bayern striker Kane was highly rated there for an extended period, Yamal saw a significant surge in popularity immediately before the end of voting.
Yamal surges significantly shortly before voting ends
In this context, the Spanish newspaper *Marca* referred to a “spectacular comeback” by the Barcelona star. Transfer insider Fabrizio Romano also pointed to the latest movements in betting and prediction markets such as Polymarket.
However, the changes there do not reflect the actual voting results. They merely show how market participants and bookmakers assess the chances of the individual candidates.
The head-to-head matchup between Yamal and Kane recently provided additional talking points. Both attacking stars scored in Spain’s 3-2 victory over England. Kane, however, also missed a penalty kick—his first miss while wearing the Three Lions’ jersey since 2022.
It cannot be determined whether this match actually influenced individual votes, especially since voters base their decisions on the candidates’ performances over the entire evaluation period.
100 journalists will decide the winner
The Ballon d’Or is awarded based on the votes of 100 journalists from the top 100 nations in the FIFA World Rankings. Each voter compiles a list of ten players, who are then awarded points accordingly.
Kane has made a strong case with his performances for FC Bayern and the English national team. Yamal and Mbappé can also point to strong individual and team performances.
The voting period ended on Monday anyway. The votes have been cast, and the counting is underway. Whether the late movement in the betting markets was actually an indication of the voting results will become clear by October 26 at the latest.