After the 2-1 defeat against FC Augsburg, Vincent Kompany’s side were held to a 2-2 draw at Hamburger SV, their second Bundesliga game without a win in a row – and a clear warning sign
Hamburger SV gave FC Bayern a passionate and courageous performance and were rewarded with a deserved point. Fábio Vieira put the hosts ahead with a penalty before Harry Kane equalized shortly before the break. Luis Díaz turned the game around immediately after the break, but Luka Vuskovic’s goal made the final score 2-2. The record champions also had two aluminium misses when Joshua Kimmich and Jonathan Tah narrowly missed the target
While HSV celebrated the point like a victory, the draw felt more like a defeat for Bayern, as captain Manuel Neuer emphasised after the game. A week after their first defeat of the season against Augsburg, the league leaders dropped another point. Borussia Dortmund could close the gap further on Sunday and at least build up a little momentum
A lot of control, little penetration
It is noticeable that there is a clear pattern behind the most recent results. Bayern continue to control large parts of the games, but rarely benefit from it. Against Augsburg, the Munich side only managed an expected goals value of 1.47 despite having over 70 per cent possession, while FCA were almost on a par with them with 1.17. A game that was statistically much closer than the visual impression would suggest
This picture was repeated in Hamburg. 72 per cent possession, an xG value of 2.35 – actually figures that should be enough for an away win. But HSV only needed 28 per cent possession to achieve an xG value of 2.27. Efficiency beats dominance. Bayern had the supposed control of the game, but allowed too much defensively
In addition, the record champions repeatedly fell behind early in the new year or failed to defend leads consistently. They trailed against Cologne, Leipzig and HSV and conceded quick equalisers against Wolfsburg and again against Hamburg. The stability that characterised Bayern for large parts of the season has recently been lost
With four points from the first three games of the second half of the season, FC Bayern have scored as few points in the Bundesliga as they last did in the 2014/15 season
Eberl sees the core problem in the defense
Sporting director Max Eberl had clear words after the draw at HSV: „Our mistakes are being punished at the moment. I’m not worried about our offense because we’re creating a lot of chances. But: We’re conceding too much at the back,“ explained the 52-year-old. An assessment that is consistent with the impression of recent weeks
Bayern were already having increasing problems maintaining their high level over 90 minutes towards the end of last year. Even in clear victories against Wolfsburg or Leipzig, there were always phases in which the opposition found spaces – but failed to exploit them consistently. These weaknesses are currently being punished coldly
Kompany has no more excuses
One factor that makes the situation even more explosive is that Vincent Kompany can almost draw on a full complement of players. Jamal Musiala, Hiroki Ito and Alphonso Davies are ready for action again, while Josip Stanisic and Sacha Boey also made their comebacks recently. Only Konrad Laimer and Raphael Guerreiro were missing for the game in Hamburg, meaning that the often-used wild card of a lack of personnel alternatives no longer applies
Kompany is now faced with the task of making the right decisions from an almost complete squad – and bringing more stability and sharpness back into the team. There is no reason to panic: Bayern continue to lead the Bundesliga and have qualified directly for the round of 16 in the Champions League
However, the current „mini-crisis“ has come at an inopportune time. In the league, Hoffenheim await, an in-form opponent who have won nine of their last ten games. Three days later comes the cup tie against RB Leipzig. A slip-up in the DFB Cup could quickly have major consequences – both in sporting and atmospheric terms
FC Bayern is facing some groundbreaking days. Everything is still under control, but the warning signs can no longer be ignored.