Let’s not beat about the bush: the odds for the title in this year’s Champions League. On the one hand, if you take a close look at the markets these days or even just use a well-founded Bundesliga betting aid, you will quickly notice that their signals could now be directly reflected in a continental dominance. And yet the betting providers and Bet365, for example, quote FC Bayern Munich behind Arsenal – perhaps also because the Gunners are again ahead in England
Why Arsenal seem unbeatable in the league phase
But a glance at the Premier League table reveals that the Gunners‘ six-point lead over Manchester City is smaller than FCB’s six-point lead over BVB. And Harry Kane & Co. have scored more than 60 times in the Bundesliga – a third more than Arsenal in the EPL. What’s more, the Gunners have no real goalscorer, with their top scorer Bryan Mbeumo on six goals from 16 games. OK, that also shows that they are less dependent on a single player, because if Kane is off, others could score, starting with Michael Olise, but Kane is in a category of his own with his 20 goals
Arsenal are also favored at odds of plus minus 1.018, mainly due to their impeccable form in the league phase with six trebles from as many appearances. Mikel Arteta’s team can only beat themselves and, yes, Bayern only lost at their place, 3-1 on 26 November. Away from that, they have five trebles to their name. In the league phase, only PSG and Manchester City are otherwise in contention, while Atalanta, who are level on points with the Skyblues, are out of the running on paper, as are Inter and Real Madrid
How Alonso’s sudden departure from Real could play out
In the tab for long-term bets on the overall winner, Bet365 still lists all the contenders, including Kairat Almaty with odds of 4501.00. Bayern are also the second most promising contender there – this time with odds of 5.50 – behind Arsenal, followed by Manchester City (7.00), PSG (8.00), Barcelona (10.00)… And Real Madrid (11.00)
However, it remains to be seen whether the odds on the Whites‘ triumph will change, as they parted company with Xabi Alonso after their defeat in the Supercopa, albeit in second place in LaLiga. The appointment of Álvaro Arbeloa as an interim solution without any rumours of a successor suggests a kind of quick fix. It remains to be seen when and how quickly things will change on the White Ballet’s coaching bench. Until then, there will certainly be a fair amount of unrest, which could cause problems, albeit against beatable opponents such as Monaco and Benfica
Why FC Bayern now seem unstoppable
Bayern, on the other hand, cannot be imagined without Vincent Kompany and the so-called „Kompany ball“, best described as a 2-2-6 in possession, is far more than a Pep-Guardiola remix, but much more an aggressive development against the defensive blocks in modern soccer. This also explains Kane’s 20 goals in 16 championship games, as he acts like a false nine, but with the physicality of a target man, while Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, who has now returned to training, or Luis Díaz, who is also performing strongly, flood the final third. Added to this is the high line defence, which stands aggressively high and allows significantly fewer big chance concessions than in previous seasons, with significantly more turnovers than just against Arsenal. In practice, it all looks like this
- Kane logically ties the central defenders to himself, opening up spaces for the runners on the run
- Olise and soon Díaz occupy the final third at the same time, making it difficult to defend
- The whole system is therefore less of a „one-trick pony“ than in the past
Nevertheless, the 8-1 win over VfL Wolfsburg was and still is seen as a demonstration of Kane’s independence. Time will tell whether FCB were not Kane-dependent only against the Wolves. There were two own goals, one of which in the fifth minute certainly played into the cards, plus a brace from Olise and goals from Kane, Leon Goretzka, Raphaël Guerreiro and Díaz. When FCB play like this, the danger is spread out and that makes them difficult to predict, especially in knockout games. Which forces opponents to adopt more conservative plans and further strengthens Kompany’s men’s control of possession. And yes, this result straight after the winter break, while others often show sluggishness after the holidays, could well be evidence
An honest assessment of the road to Budapest
In the league phase, Bayern still have a home game against Union Saint-Gilloise and a game at PSV Eindhoven to come, where everything points to a haul of six points. These final duels suggest a top-eight finish and thus a „walkover“ for the intermediate round. In addition, if they finish first or second, the runner-up or winner – presumably Arsenal – would not be waiting until the final in Budapest
Before that, a weaker and logically more tired play-off contender awaits at least once in the round of 16. Nevertheless, an honest record is essential. Kompany’s high line leaves spaces behind the defence, and that could also cause problems against teams such as Manchester City, PSG, Barcelona or even Real Madrid. Even if the Bundesliga figures suggest less than one goal conceded per game, the risk is managed.