Who will win the 2026 Ballon d’Or? On Monday evening, the most prestigious individual award in world soccer will be presented in London. With Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and other stars, FC Bayern is also well represented. For record-holding national team player Lothar Matthäus, one thing is already clear: The winner of the Ballon d’Or should really come from Munich.
However, the competition is packed with big names. In addition to Kane and Olise, Lamine Yamal of FC Barcelona and Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappé are considered among the most promising candidates. Performances at the 2026 World Cup are also likely to play an important role in the voting.
Matthäus, however, is critical of the weight given to the World Cup tournament. For the 1990 World Cup champion, what counts most is performance over the entire evaluation period. And in his view, two Bayern players have the edge.
Matthäus: “Olise or Kane”
Following Borussia Dortmund’s 1-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt, Matthäus explained on Sky why his take on the Ballon d’Or debate differs from that of many other experts.
“There are two candidates who, in my view, would be the clear favorites if I were to evaluate the entire twelve-month period. Unfortunately, not all experts do that,” emphasized the 65-year-old.
He takes particular issue with the focus on the World Cup. “They say the World Cup was more important than anything else. But the title is decided over twelve months. Rodri was named the World Cup’s best player, so that title is practically already decided.”
Matthäus then got specific and brought two Munich players into the discussion.
“This year—this season, with the World Cup—there are really only two for me, and both play for FC Bayern: Olise or Kane. Because of their goals, because of the excitement they bring, because of their importance, and also because they’ve won two titles.”
For Matthäus, Kane has a decisive advantage
But who should win the Golden Ball if the decision were actually between Kane and Olise?
When asked by host Laura Wontorra, Sky expert Tabea Kemme came out in favor of the English striker. Matthäus agreed with this assessment.
“Harry Kane is also the captain of the English national team. Those are the little details that probably tip the scales in Kane’s favor, especially when we look at the two Bayern players, whom we expect to at least make it onto the podium.”
For the 33-year-old, winning the Ballon d’Or would be the crowning achievement of his career so far. But Olise, too, has long since established himself among the world’s absolute best with his performances.
In addition to Kane and Olise, two other Bayern players—Luis Díaz and Dayot Upamecano—are on the list of nominees.
The German record champions are also strongly represented on the women’s side. Klara Bühl, Pernille Harder, and Momoko Tanikawa can also hope to win the coveted award.