FC Bayern are facing a landmark Champions League evening: with a win against Sporting Lisbon, the record champions could already take a huge step towards the round of 16 – and the statisticians are already certain that Munich are „statistically almost there“. Vincent Kompany remains cautious, but his statements show how favourable the starting position is
Three games, three wins – FC Bayern have put their first defeat of the season against Arsenal behind them remarkably quickly, celebrating an emphatic 5-0 away win at VfB Stuttgart last weekend
Vincent Kompany looked correspondingly satisfied ahead of the home game against Sporting Lisbon. The goal is clear: Munich want to establish themselves in the top eight early on in the league phase of the Champions League and avoid the troublesome intermediate round
A win against the Portuguese double winners would be a key step in this direction and, statistically speaking, a kind of preliminary decision
„Five wins plus one point“ – Kompany trusts the data
Vincent Kompany revealed at the matchday press conference that he had consulted with statisticians in advance. The forecast is clear: „Five games plus a point – then you’re almost certainly through.“
A win against Sporting would mean Bayern have practically reached the finish line and could then secure the last point they need against Eindhoven or Saint-Gilloise in January
Nevertheless, Kompany warns against making too many calculations. He doesn’t think in terms of the standings, but in the here and now: „I don’t like to think like that. We have two home games, our situation is almost perfect – we have to take advantage of that.“
Sporting in top form – Bayern prepare for an intense clash
Gnabry, who is fit and ready for action again himself, issued an urgent warning about Sporting: a „very good team“ with „very good attacking players“, technically strong, variable and with a remarkable run. The Portuguese champions have not lost a competitive match since the beginning of October. The match is suitable for live sports betting and promises to be a real spectacle
Kompany particularly highlighted the speed of the wingers and centre-forward Luis Suárez: an attacker who „can run deep if he has to“ but also uses his body. Twelve goals this season speak for themselves
Compared to the 5-0 win in Stuttgart, Kompany will rotate his starting eleven again. Harry Kane, who scored a treble as a substitute in the Bundesliga, returns to the starting eleven. Lennart Karl is also likely to start again, as is captain Manuel Neuer, who was recently given a break
Alphonso Davies could also be back in the squad for the first time since tearing his cruciate ligament. Kompany left this option open, but stressed: „Anything before Christmas is a bonus.“ Gnabry praised the Canadian’s composure: „He’s completely relaxed.“
Bayern don’t want to count – but the starting position speaks in their favor
Kompany is realistic about the situation: „Statistically, we’re very close.“ But the goal remains maximum yield: nine points from the last three games – and thus the perfect response to the defeat against Arsenal
With a win against Sporting, the record champions would not only consolidate their position in the table, but also strengthen the feeling that the new Champions League structure is helping rather than hindering Bayern. The first big step is now imminent.