FC Bayern will play what is supposedly the most important match of the current season tonight (9pm, live on Prime Video). The Munich side host Lazio Roma at home in the Allianz Arena for the second leg of the Champions League round of 16 and need a win to progress to the next round.
„It’s a do-or-die game“ for Bayern, as they would say in American sport. The second leg against Lazio is not only a final game for Thomas Tuchel, there is also a lot at stake for the club. Especially financially, an elimination in the last 16 would be a real disaster for the German record champions. In the event of elimination, FCB would have to forgo almost 11 million euros in UEFA bonuses. In addition, there would be further losses from TV marketing and a missing home game in the quarter-finals.
Bayern hopes Lazio’s German curse will work in its favour
From a purely statistical point of view, there is little to be said in favour of Tuchel’s team tonight. Bayern have always been eliminated in their last seven Champions League games when they have lost the first leg. The last time they overcame a first-leg defeat was in the 2014/15 season, when they lost 3-1 in Porto and won the second leg 6-1.
In recent years, they have lost to Manchester City, FC Villarreal and Paris Saint-Germain, among others. They would also be knocked out in the round of 16 of the top flight for the first time since the 2018/19 season.
However, there is one statistic that Munich will certainly be a little happier about. Bayern have won their last six Champions League home games against Italian opponents. Lazio have also never won a CL away game in Germany. However, a draw would be enough for the Romans to knock Bayern out of the competition.
